Key Points
Currently, you pay 6.2% of your income into Social Security each year before that money ever makes it to your bank account. That’s thousands of dollars per year. If you’re self-employed like me, then you pay twice as much — the full 12.4% — since you don’t have an employer to split the burden with you.
Most people would say that’s more than enough money to lose to a program with an uncertain long-term value. But a tax increase is almost certainly in the cards within the next few years, and I, for one, believe it can’t come fast enough. That’s not as ridiculous as it sounds when you look at the math.
Social Security needs more money — and fast
The latest Social Security Trustees’ Report revealed that Social Security now has just seven years until its combined trust funds are depleted. It’ll face a 17% benefit cut at that point unless Washington finds a way to increase revenue to the program.
There are several ways to do this, but there’s no single, easy option to resolve the issue. It’s likely that ordinary Americans will face some sort of payroll tax increase to boost the program’s income. But we don’t know exactly what that increase will look like.
The Trustees’ Report estimated that in the worst-case scenario, if the payroll tax rate were increased as of January 2026, it would have to climb 4.25 percentage points to completely eliminate the funding shortfall. Most Americans would only see their taxes increase by half that — about 2.13 percentage points — because their employer would pay the other half.
But if the government delays making changes until 2034, when the trust funds are depleted, the necessary payroll tax increase will climb to 4.9 percentage points. Again, most Americans would only have to pay half of this, but it could still amount to hundreds or thousands of dollars more per year that never make it to your bank account.
So while I’d prefer no tax increase at all, if one has to happen, I’d rather it happen sooner so more generations can share in the responsibility of paying more into the program. The longer we wait, the more this burden will rest on the younger generations.
The worst-case scenario isn’t guaranteed
While some sort of payroll tax increase is likely, it probably won’t be the only strategy that Congress uses to stave off a major benefit cut. Other possible moves that government officials have floated include eliminating the ceiling on Social Security payroll taxes (currently $184,500 in 2026) to force the wealthy to pay more into the program, and raising the full retirement age (FRA), which would act as a benefit cut to younger workers.
If Washington employs a combination of strategies, this would reduce the payroll tax increase necessary to avoid a shortfall. But in every scenario, the longer Congress waits to act, the more difficult it will be to solve the problem.
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