Key Points
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In June, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong called a market bottom for Bitcoin at $60,000.
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A key factor to consider for crypto investors is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle of boom or bust.
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Over the past decade, Bitcoin has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33%.
- 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›
In mid-June, Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong predicted that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may have hit a bottom at $60,000.
While Bitcoin has only made a modest move upward since then, there’s reason to think that Bitcoin might actually turn things around this year. In fact, at a current price of $64,000, Bitcoin still has an outside chance of hitting $100,000 within the next 12 months.
Bitcoin’s boom-or-bust nature
According to Brian Armstrong, a key factor to keep in mind is the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has always been a boom-or-bust asset. Either it’s the top-performing asset in the world, or it’s the worst-performing. Three good years are typically followed by one very bad year.
Over the long term, though, Bitcoin has always followed an upward trajectory. Importantly, after every major market crash, Bitcoin has always recovered to hit a new all-time high.
Just consider the previous Bitcoin bear market cycle. After hitting a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in 2021, Bitcoin lost 64% of its value in 2022. But it quickly recovered, hitting the $100,000 price level by the end of 2024.
Could the same type of recovery happen this time around? While historical performance is certainly no guarantee of future performance, Bitcoin does have a stellar track record of bouncing back from adversity.
Potential catalysts
As Coinbase has pointed out, a multitude of factors could push Bitcoin higher over the next 12 months. Increased regulatory clarity is a major factor, as it will likely drive even greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
Moreover, money finally seems to be returning to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Steady buying by institutional investors will help to push up the price of Bitcoin.
Is the bottom really in?
That being said, not all investors are convinced that Bitcoin is headed higher. As a follow-up to his “Bitcoin has hit a bottom” prediction in June, Armstrong recently conducted an online poll with a simple question: “Is the bottom in?”
Approximately 56% of respondents said no, while 44% said yes. The mixed results show that there are simply too many wildcard factors to predict what will happen to Bitcoin in the short term.
What happens if tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices spike, inflation rears its ugly head, and the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates? That’s a nightmare scenario for Bitcoin, since it tends to thrive in low-rate environments.
Focus on the long term
At the end of the day, investors should focus on the long term, not the short term, when investing in Bitcoin. In the short term, Bitcoin is simply too volatile, and day-to-day price swings can be jarring.
However, Bitcoin looks very different from a long-term perspective. From August 2017 to June 2026, Bitcoin grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33%. That was despite major market crashes in 2018, 2022, and 2025-2026.
Admittedly, expecting Bitcoin to grow at a 33% clip, year after year, is an aggressive forecast. But if that happens, Bitcoin could easily regain the $100,000 price level within the next 12 months.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
