Key Points
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has lost almost $1 trillion in notional value since its stock peaked in the initial days following its initial public offer (IPO). As of this writing on July 16, the stock (also known as SpaceX) is trading near its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, about $133 the last time I checked.
If you watched this stock hit about $201 at the end of its third trading day, you might be wondering if this is the chance to buy in. Raymond James, which co-managed SpaceX’s IPO, recently set a $800 price target on the space stock. Even the average price target, about $244, implies 83% upside.
Even if the $800 price target materialized, it would take a very large investment for SpaceX to mint new millionaires: about $166,250 at today’s price. Obviously, not every investor has six figures to invest with, nor would it be prudent to put that much into a stock that still trades at about 100 times sales. The question then becomes: Even if SpaceX alone can’t make you a millionaire, can it be one of several stocks that you pick that contributes to millionaire status?
In other words, is SpaceX a buy at $133 a share?
SpaceX’s business is booming, and expectations are growing
SpaceX is an incredible business; operationally, it is extraordinary. According to the company’s own figures, it has launched more than 80% of the global mass that went into orbit annually since 2023. Its Falcon missions have achieved a 99% success rate, with 165 Falcon 9 mission in 2025.
Of the roughly 15,000 active satellites in orbit, SpaceX operates about 10,000. Subscribers to the company’s Starlink internet access have jumped from about 5 million in the first quarter of 2025 to roughly 10.3 million a year later, with service now available across about 164 countries and territories.
Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the company’s largest opportunity — about $26.5 trillion. Yet it’s also SpaceX’s biggest cash drag. It invested almost $18 billion on AI development in 2025, equivalent to about 96% of its $18.7 billion revenue.
In order for SpaceX to be considered a buy today, even a weak one, its AI division needs to flip from a negative to a positive, something that many on Wall Street are expecting. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs think SpaceX’s AI business could generate $322 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projects about $190 billion from AI by that year.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have projected the company’s revenue hitting $3.4 trillion in 2040 — a searing compound annual growth rate of about 41%.
In that most bullish scenario, SpaceX could be worth several times more than what it is today. If it traded at five times sales, $3.4 trillion in revenue would be equivalent to a $17 trillion valuation. Assuming the share count stays the same, the stock would trade at about $1,300, or more than nine times its current price.
So, is SpaceX a buy?
If all these numbers and predictions make your eyes gloss over, consider this: The market has sky-high expectations for SpaceX — so high that any little setbacks or disappointing news could send the stock reeling down.
That volatility is why I still shy away from this stock. Nothing has led me to firmly believe that SpaceX will mint new millionaires, nor that it’s even a buy at today’s price. That’s not because I don’t trust its business; I just don’t see a world in front of me in which this company’s core businesses generate trillions in sales.
When that world becomes more realistic, then I might change my mind. Until then, I would hold off on buying SpaceX, at least until it trades at a lower valuation.
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Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
